STUDY: ANTICIPATING THE FINANCIAL CRISIS – EVIDENCE FROM INSIDER TRADING IN BANKS


crisis

Was the Financial Crisis Anticipated?

Evidence from Insider Trading in Banks

Banking crises are recurrent phenomena that often trigger deep and long-lasting recessions with enormous economic and political costs. Yet the empirical evidence is now overwhelming that banking crises do not come as bolts from the blue – they come after periods of strong bank credit growth and risk-taking, often associated with real-estate bubbles. The crisis of 2008 was no different: it is clear that banks took on more and more risk as bubbles swelled in many countries.

A key research question is why banks take such excessive risks. Many defenders of finance in the recent crisis suggest that the giant institutions were really taken by surprise when the bubble popped. Otherwise, runs the argument, why wouldn’t they have sold off all the junk? The implication of this “behavioral” view is that banks take on high risks because, for example, they neglect unlikely tail risks and have over-optimistic beliefs about the economy.

But there is another, less innocent answer: explicit and implicit bank guarantees by states, such as deposit insurance, provision of central bank liquidity, and bail-outs make it rational for banks to take on excessive risk. Sometimes this “moral hazard” point of view is combined with an “agency failure” account, which stresses how bank managements can escape from control of their shareowners and holders of bank debt.

These views of why banks take on excessive risk are testable. In a recent paper we tackle this question by providing sector-wide evidence from US. We examine what bank insiders were doing before the crisis and use executives’ trading with their own bank shares as a proxy for their understanding of risk before the crisis hit in 2007-08. Specifically, we investigate the relationship between bank’s performance in the crisis and bank executives’ sale of their own bank shares in the period prior to the crisis.

Rest here…

Copy of the report here…

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9 Comments

  1. lvent
    August 2, 2016 at 4:28 PM — Reply

    They’re the investors in their own fraud who protect their racket by trying to criminally undermine the legal rights of others by condemnation of the fact collusion is conflict of interest by coveting.what’s not theirs to covet.

  2. lvent
    August 2, 2016 at 4:21 PM — Reply

    These imposters haul people off to unknown locations by identity theft under false pretenses they manufacture.

  3. lvent
    August 2, 2016 at 3:55 PM — Reply

    They’re human trafficking under the guise of FC.

    Moreover, there should be legal inquiries made by the GENEVA CONVENTION with the mob bosses here & in the kremlin in regards to what they’re invested in.

  4. kimrbradford
    August 1, 2016 at 12:45 PM — Reply

    Personally they got away with stealing our homes, Karmas a bitch

  5. mike Drouin
    August 1, 2016 at 7:08 AM — Reply

    What is another reason that would allow the Banks to ” anticipate ” the crises ??? How about this reason , The Banks perpetrated a scheme that was hidden behind a legitimate business transaction ( Mortgage ) , Illegal in its execution and designed to collapse in a specific period of time , Netting them trillions in income and the ability to get out of the market with maximum profits !!!! This scheme played borrower against the Investor either not knowing that they were both being set up for failure in a time frame designed to fail , by the Banks , in a contract that would defraud both parties of their wealth !!!! It was THEFT !!! PERIOD !!!! The dynamics of it , is in the Courts as this is being written that reveals the whole Scam !!! Stay tuned America , you are about to be rocked with the truth of a Government aided and abetted scheme against its own people !!!

  6. lvent
    July 31, 2016 at 8:52 PM — Reply

    I think I should be in the witness protection program because you can’t know who your enemies could be in investor disputes over things they can’t possibly own.

    JUDGE ATKINS told me in open court it’s going to be to your peril with no lawyer.

    To that I said there’s no lawyers fighting the fraud which was told to me by KEVIN O’CONNELL from the CHIEF INVESTIGATIONS DIVISION of AG MADIGANS OFFICE & the CHIEF OF POLICE in CRESTWOOD, my former FBI AGENT father’s friend when we met to discuss the fraud.

    I went to the CCRD PROPERTY & DEED FRAUD OFFICE to report the fraud & I told the rep I called the FBI WHITE COLLAR CRIMES DIVISION to report the fraud & he said what did they tell you? I ssid they told me it’s the GSE’s to which he laughed. He said call them back & tell them you want the MORTGAGE FRAUD DEPARTMENT & don’t let them tell you they don’t have one.

    He said he would look into the fraud & call me back & he never did.

    I have the card he gave me that day HOTLINE # 312-603-4000 that says THIS HOTLINE HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED TO REPORT POSSIBLE FRAUDULENT DEED & PROPERTY ACTIVITY – http://www.ccrd.info

  7. lvent
    July 31, 2016 at 8:23 PM — Reply

    Moreover, FC is criminal entrapment of the legal rights of US CITIZENS by investors in their own crime racket because they’re racketeering in identity theft with stolen social #’s.

    That’s what I discovered by being forced to defend 2 FC’s myself, PRO SE for the past 5 years & they’re trying to steal my house & everything because of it.

  8. lvent
    July 31, 2016 at 11:12 AM — Reply

    They’re insider trading in stolen identities through stolen social #’s llike mine 341-66-6698 to money launder fraud.

  9. lvent
    July 31, 2016 at 11:08 AM — Reply

    What I discovered by being forced to defend 2 FC’s myself, PRO SE for the past 5 years is these mobsters stole my identity to money launder fraud through my social # 341-66-6698 which nearly cost me my life.

    Now they’re trying to throw me out of my house to hide it .

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