‘Shadow’ Inventory Overhyped as Housing Threat (IMHO = FALSE)


‘Shadow’ Overhyped as Housing Threat

It’s been a hard year to be a housing bear.

U.S. housing markets finally came alive in 2012, with home sales and housing starts up strongly. And prices are on track to end the year in positive territory for the first time since the downturn began in 2006.

S&P/Case-Shiller home-price data due Wednesday should confirm those gains. The main 20-city, composite index for October is expected to rise by 4.1% from one year ago, according to Zillow Inc. Z +0.59

Skeptics often point to the sizable overhang of properties headed toward foreclosure—the “shadow” inventory—that they say will erode such recent gains. While shadow inventory remains high, there is good reason to think it won’t choke off the nascent recovery in 2013

First, the shadow is shrinking. It has already fallen to 3.4 million units this year from a peak of 4.7 million in 2009, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting. As well, inventories of new homes for sale are at 50-year lows, while listings of previously owned homes are at an 11-year low. Banks have also become better at approving short sales, where homes sell for less than the mortgage owed.

The danger in focusing so heavily on supply is that skeptics have overlooked demand, which revved up this past year. Sales of existing homes in November were up 14.5% year over year to a three-year high.

Rest here…

They still just don’t get it.

What a shame…



4 Responses to “‘Shadow’ Inventory Overhyped as Housing Threat (IMHO = FALSE)”
  1. Cogo says:

    Did you ever think that maybe it was just us who didnt get it???

    I mean, I have been waiting for 6+ years now for the TSUNAMI of shadow inventory do be DUMPED and bring prices back to the stone age. How many more years before I am entitled to say “I guess its not going to happen” and move on???

  2. 2 Pirates Over 40 says:

    Anyone want more kool-aid ? We have lots more for those who want more…….

  3. neidermeyer says:

    The article mentioned listings of previously owned is at an 11 year low … here’s why..

    People have no jobs… they’re hanging on where they are… the banks aren’t listing their REO inventory.. people aren’t being transferred to new jobs in other cities…. AND the real number of “shadow” homes is closer to 9Million if you count all the 90 day+ lates.

    The housing prices will remain fairly stable in my opinion as the sales numbers crash… and crash they will as incomes are reduced by increased taxes in 2013. Sorry all … there is NO RECOVERY.

  4. Poof says:

    That’s strange looks to be more empty homes where I live than there was last year ! Maybe I should send those folks some pictures of all of the bank owned homes in Michigan ! Nice try.

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