Anyone involved in the Casino industry will tell you that people will go to extraordinary lengths to “game the system”. Counting cards, while not illegal, is highly frowned upon and casino security are trained to spot the card counters. Once spotted, the counter is politely asked to leave, sometimes by brutal bouncers.
There is very little difference between the Casinos in Vegas and the Casino on Wall Street. One major difference is, bending the rules and outright cheating is not only condoned on Wall Street, but if you are one of the “market makers” it is expected. In Vegas, everyone knows the odds favour the house. On Wall Street, not only do the odds favour the house, but the dealers at the table have their own con going as well.
Case on point is FEDISCOPE, a patented business system invented by Bruce Tuckman of New York and assigned to and operated by Barclay’s Capital, Inc., also of New York.. This patented business system is described as “METHODS AND SYSTEMS FOR INTEREST RATE PREDICTION”. Here is the abstract:
In one aspect, the invention comprises a computer-implemented method for predicting interest rates, comprising the steps of: electronically receiving data describing one or more Fed fund futures rates to obtain adjusted data regarding the one or more Fed fund futures rates; and electronically determining data regarding one or more expected Fed fund target rates. In another aspect, the invention comprises a system for predicting interest rates comprising: one of more processors operable to determine probability distribution data for one or more Eurodollar rates based on Eurodollar futures option data; one or more processors operable to link said probability distribution data for one or more Eurodollar rates to overnight forward Fed funds rate data; and one or more processors operable to link said forward Fed funds rate data to expected Fed funds rate data.
As you dive deeper into the patent, you find yourself swimming in even more arcane terms of art which can become even more confusing than the abstract. Here are some examples: