LPS’ June Mortgage Monitor: Spike in Delinquency Rate Broad-Based Across Geography, Loan Type; Quarterly Increase Still Low by Historical Standards
JACKSONVILLE, Fla., Aug. 5, 2013 /PRNewswire/ — The June Mortgage Monitor report released by Lender Processing Services (NYSE: LPS) found that the nearly 10 percent spike in the national delinquency rate reported in the company’s “First Look” at mortgage performance was based on approximately 700,000 newly 30-day delinquent loans in June. As LPS Applied Analytics Senior Vice President Herb Blecher explained, the spike — while large — should be seen in the proper context.
“June’s increase in delinquencies is representative of a documented seasonal phenomenon,” Blecher said. “Over the last 18 years, similar changes occurred in June for all but four of those years. And this month’s increase was felt across all 50 states — from a roughly 14 percent month-over-month rise in 30-day delinquencies in Nevada to a nearly 32 percent upswing in Colorado. Additionally, we examined the data to see the effect of recent increases in interest rates on delinquency rates and found no significant impact thus far. Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), which one would expect to be impacted most by such interest rate changes, actually saw delinquency rates rise at a lower relative rate than those of fixed-rate mortgages.
“Of course, focusing solely on month-to-month shifts in mortgage performance can be like tracking the stock market on a daily basis,” Blecher continued. “You may see periodic spikes and dips, but without a longer-term perspective, you lack a clear picture of how the market is actually performing. Though June’s 9.9 percent spike was indeed significant — and a reversal of five consecutive months of declines — on a quarterly basis, the rise was much more moderate than the historical average. Since 1995, delinquency rates have risen from Q1 to Q2 in all but two years, with an average 7 percent increase. By comparison, the 2013 Q1 to Q2 increase was just 1.34 percent.”
Copy of the full report here…